Supply chain problems have a way of showing up fast and hitting hard. If you’re in HVAC, you’ve been through enough to know that by now, from the pandemic disruption in 2020 to The Great Refrigerant Shortage of 2025. 

Two different problems, same result. Distributors get caught in a bind, and contractors are left holding the bag. 

Both times, the industry wasn’t ready. And while no one can control every variable, there’s one thing that keeps coming up in the post-mortem: forecasting.

A Voice of the Distributor survey from HARDI confirms the issue. Over the last two years, only about a quarter of HVAC distributors said their sales forecasts matched actual demand. That means three out of four were off the mark, some by more than 15%.

That kind of gap slows down projects, blows up lead times, and leaves commercial contractors scrambling for answers when the parts or refrigerants don’t show up.

Where the Forecast Breaks Down

Part of the problem is that everyone’s planning in their own bubble. Distributors work off ERP data and feedback from contractors. But most aren’t passing that information upstream to the manufacturers. And manufacturers aren’t exactly opening the books either.

It’s a two-way street with traffic going nowhere. Forecasting only works when both sides share what they know and make time to compare notes. But too often, those conversations never happen, or when they do, they stay surface-level.

Zachary Perge, vice president of distribution strategies at HARDI, put it plainly: “It comes back to the really controllable things around communication and forecasting.”

According to Perge, suppliers claim to have strong relationships with their distributors. But talk to the distributors, and they’ll tell you the conversations are mostly transactional. That disconnect causes real problems when refrigerant changes hit and supply becomes a guessing game.

Business Planning Got Lost in the Shuffle

In the run-up to the refrigerant changes, the focus was heavy on compliance and technical specs, like what qualifies as a system, what counts as an add-on, how to stay on the right side of the code. All important stuff. 

But in the scramble to stay compliant, business planning took a backseat. Few were asking:

• What will this change do to inventory flow?
• How will this impact contractors down the line?
• Are we ready to shift with demand if things move faster or slower than expected?

The answers weren’t always clear, and the industry ended up flat-footed again.

A Fix That Starts With a Conversation

Nobody’s saying forecasting is easy. Even with good data, it takes real effort and a steady back-and-forth between suppliers, distributors, and contractors to get it right.

But it doesn’t have to be perfect to make a difference. Even basic steps — like sharing updated sales trends, syncing on inventory planning, or holding regular check-ins — can tighten up the gaps.

What This Means for Contractors

Late deliveries, backordered parts, and shifting specs turn into missed timelines and rework on your end. That’s why it’s worth asking your suppliers and distributors how they’re planning ahead and how often they’re talking to each other. 

The smoother they run behind the scenes, the easier it is for you to stay on track in the field.