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Commercial HVAC Growth Data Guide

Mar. 29, 2023

Commercial HVAC Growth Data

How Business Growth Changed For Commercial HVAC Companies In The Past 2 Years

About This Guide

Our research aimed to examine the employment number changes across commercial HVAC companies. We took data related to employee counts—and relative insights— from company LinkedIn profiles across the web. Our random sample contains a distribution of small, mid-size, and large companies—covering exactly 1000 businesses.

The analysis period includes time increments from the past six months, 11 months, and two years—the second part of the COVID pandemic and the end of the recovery period.

We condensed all of our findings into a single, easy-to-read summary—followed by three sections, each containing a detailed outline of all the data accumulated over each time period considered.

As a part of this study, we also took a sample of our own customer database in an effort to compare it against a random sample of commercial HVAC companies—where we don’t know if they employ any field service management software or not.

Top Finding

We discovered that the average company using the BuildOps platform grows 10.6% faster than a company that uses other software or no software at all (Based on employee growth numbers within a 2-year period – LinkedIn supplied data).

Data Sample

Our sample of 1000 commercial HVAC companies included 605 small businesses (20 employees or less), 320 midsize (20 to 100 employees), and 72 large companies (100 employees or more). The following image provides a visual representation of this distribution:

In the total sample size of 1000 companies, six months ago, there were 416 companies with 20 employees or less. Let’s look at a two-year period, including the pandemic years. The number of companies in this group size increases to 627, indicating that 34% of companies had expanded and left the small company segment (20 employees or less).

We have noticed that a relative number of companies have experienced a growth rate of 10-20% (roughly 16-18% of the total sample). Meanwhile, many companies have seen a modest 1% to 5% growth performance, which has tripled over the past two years.

We are also seeing a 50% increase in companies that have experienced flat growth compared to two years ago, most of which are in the 20 employees or less company size group.

Companies experiencing a strong growth rate of 20% or more on the employee side have gone down significantly, with seven times fewer companies experiencing this rate of employee growth. Many have decreased to a modest 1% to 5%.

The number of companies that have lost employees has varied from 12% to 15% over the past two years. The end of the pandemic presented both growth opportunities and volatility due to employees leaving or being let go. Comparing 6 months to two years ago reveals that there is more stability now with fewer companies losing their workers.

number of HVAC companies experiencing growth in the past 6 months to two years

The number of companies that have lost employees has varied from 12% to 15% over the past two years. The end of the pandemic era brought both growth opportunities and volatility due to employees leaving or having been let go. Comparing this six-month period to two years ago reveals that there is now more stability within the industry—with fewer companies losing their workforce.

number of HVAC companies losing employees in the past 6 months to 2 years

Although 2021 still presented significant growth opportunities over these six months—particularly for small HVAC businesses—we have seen a steady decline in the growth probability for this particular group, from 45% two years ago to 22% over the past six months. Moreover, this approximate 23% decrease is visible across all midsize and small companies.

Companies with 20-100 employees and 100+ employees show a very high growth potential, with midsize companies at 60% and large companies at 81%.

probability chart that HVAC business in the US is growting - past 6 months to 2 years

COMMERCIAL HVAC COMPANIES GROWTH PAST 6 MONTHS

Findings – Past 6 Months

Over the last six months, 37% of all HVAC companies we analyzed have experienced some level of growth. In contrast, 49.7% of companies experienced little to no growth at all. It’s important to note that, out of all the companies that experienced no growth, 416 were organizations with fewer than 20 employees.

Only 12.7% of the total sample experienced a loss of employees in the last six months.

If we were to extrapolate these numbers to reflect the total number of commercial HVAC companies in the whole of the United States—what kind of growth potential would we see for each company size group in the last 6 months?

Growth potential based on company size:

  • 80% of businesses with 100 employees or more have seen growth in the past six months.
  • 60% of companies with 20 to 100 employees have seen growth in the last six months.
  • 22% of companies with fewer than 20 employees have seen growth in the past six months.
  • Over the last six months, 87% of businesses from our random sample size of 1000 experienced no loss of employees. 497 companies experienced 0% growth, 153 have seen between 1% and 5% growth, 176 companies experienced between 10% and 20%, and 42 companies experienced a whopping 20% growth rate.

    number of hvac companies - growth in past 6 months

    127 companies on our list have experienced a decrease in employee count in the past six months. 51 of these companies experienced a 5% employee loss over the same time period. 64 companies saw a 5-20% employee loss, while 12 companies experienced a loss of more than 20%.

    number of hvac companies losing employees - past 6 months

    Let’s take a closer look at which groups of companies lost or gained the most in the past six months.

    100 + Employees:

    We have 72 companies on the list with an employee count of 100 or more. Out of these, only 7 have experienced a reduction in employee count ranging from 1% to 4%, while 6 have seen no growth in the past six months. 43 companies have seen a 1-5% growth rate, and 16 have experienced a 6-15% growth rate.

    This means that 91% of large companies with 100 employees or more have been experiencing growth over the past six months, with 60% of these companies growing at a modest pace of 1-5% over the same time period.

    20 to 100 Employees:

    If we take a look at the midsize group, with 100-20 employees, we find 319 companies. 75 of these have seen no growth in the past six months, 191 have experienced positive growth, and 52 have seen a decrease in employees. 140 of these companies have seen growth from 1-10%, and 50 have experienced growth of 10-26%.

    20 Employees Or Less:

    Roughly 50% of the companies in the sample (1-20 employees) that were noticed on LinkedIn did not experience any growth in the past six months, and 68 experienced a negative growth rate. However, 121 of these companies experienced positive growth—86 of which with a 10% or more increase in their headcount. In this small enterprise group, roughly 14% experienced significant growth of 10-50%, with a few surpassing even that.

    COMMERCIAL HVAC COMPANIES GROWTH PAST 11 MONTHS

    Findings – 11 Months

    Of the companies that we looked at, 50% experienced growth in the past 11 months. 33.9% had 0% growth, with most of these companies (295) being businesses with fewer than 20 employees. Only 15.5% of the total sample size have lost employees in the past 11 months, with the majority of those being from the small business category (1-20 employees).

    probability that HVAC company is growing the past 11 months - 2022 to 2023

    If we were to extrapolate these numbers to reflect the total number of commercial HVAC companies in the whole of the United States—what kind of growth potential would we see for each company size group in the last 11 months?

    Growth potential based on company size:

  • 90% of businesses with 100 employees or more will have seen growth in the past 11 months.
  • 70% of businesses with 20 to 100 employees will have seen growth in the past 11 months.
  • Only 36% of businesses with 20 or fewer employees will have seen growth in the past 11 months.
  • Over the past 11 months, 339 of the 1000 companies sampled experienced 0% growth, while 95 saw a growth rate of 1%-5%. An additional 131 companies experienced a growth rate of 6 to 10%, and 164 companies had a growth rate of 10%-20%. The most impressive growth was seen by the 158 companies who experienced a growth rate of 20% or more. Altogether, 84% of the companies on the list had no decrease in their employee count.

    number of hvac companies experiencing growth in the past 11 months - 2022 to 2023

    In the past 11 months, 155 companies on our list have experienced a reduction in employee headcount. 49 of these companies experienced a 5% employee loss, while 86 experienced a loss of 5%-20%. The most significant reduction was seen by the 34 companies who experienced an employee loss of above 20%.

    number of hvac companies experiencing employee loss in the past 11 months - 2022 to 2023 data

    Let’s take a closer look at which segments lost or gained the most in the past 11 months.

    100 + Employees:

    Of the 72 large companies on the list with 100 or more employees, 7 experienced a reduction in employee count ranging from 1% to 5%. One company experienced 0% growth in the past 11 months, while 23 had a growth rate of 1% to 5%. The remaining 41 companies had a growth rate of 6% to 44%.

    Altogether, 90% of the large companies with 100 employees or more have experienced growth in the past 11 months.

    20 to 100 Employees:

    If we look at the midsize segment, including businesses with 100 to 20 employees, there are 319 companies. 43 of these companies experienced 0% growth in the past 11 months, while 225 had positive growth and 52 lost employees. 134 companies here experienced growth from 1% to 10%, 86 had a growth rate of 10% to 25%, and 19 had an employee growth rate above 25%.

    20 Employees Or Less:

    The small company segment, consisting of businesses with 1 to 20 employees, made up more than half of the total sample size. 300 of these companies experienced no growth in the past 11 months, and 98 experienced negative growth. 228 experienced some growth, with 184 companies having a 10% or greater increase in headcount. Roughly 29% of these smaller businesses are experiencing significant growth of 10% or more.

    COMMERCIAL HVAC COMPANIES GROWTH PAST 2 YEARS

    Findings – Past 2 Years

    Of all the HVAC companies that we looked at, 59.4% have experienced growth in the past 2 years. 26% had 0% growth; this was most prevalent amongst companies with less than 20 employees, of which 261 experienced no growth.

    Only 14% of the companies sampled have experienced a loss of employees in the past 2 years.

    probability that HVAC business is growing in the past 2 years - 2021 to 2023 data

    If we were to extrapolate these numbers to reflect the total number of commercial HVAC companies in the whole of the United States—what kind of growth potential would we see for each company size group in the last 2 years?

    Growth potential based on company size:

  • 91% of companies with 100 employees or more would have seen growth in the past 2 years.
  • Roughly 81% of companies with 20 to 100 employees would have seen growth in the past 2 years.
  • Only 45% of companies with fewer than 20 employees saw growth in the past 2 years.
  • Over the last two years, 85.5% of the 1000 companies sampled have not experienced a decrease in employee count. Of those companies, 261 experienced no growth, 55 saw a growth rate of between 1-5%, 94 had a 6-10% growth, 181 experienced 10-20% growth, and 287 had an impressive growth rate of 20% or more.

    HVAC Companies Numbers That Are Experiencing Growth In The Past 2 Years - 2021 to 2023 data

    140 of the companies on our list have seen a decline in the number of employees over the last two years. 32 of these companies had a drop of between 1-5%, 85 had reductions of between 5-20%, and 32 had losses of over 20%.

    number of hvac companies experiencing employee loss in the past 2 years - 2021 to 2023 data

    Let’s take a closer look at which segments lost or gained the most in the past 2 years.

    100 + Employees:

    Of the 72 companies on the list with 100 or more employees, only 5 have seen a decrease in their employee count by 1-3%. Conversely, one company has experienced no growth, 11 have seen a growth rate of 1-5%, and 55 have seen a growth rate of 6-100% or more.

    This means that 91% of large companies (100 employees or more) are experiencing growth over the last two years.

    20 to 100 Employees:

    In the midsize segment, with 100-20 employees, there were a total of 320 companies. 19 of them saw no growth in the last two years, 260 had positive growth, and 41 lost employees. 92 companies had a growth rate of 1-10%, 116 had a growth rate of 10-25%, and 66 had a growth rate of over 25%.

    20 Employees Or Less:

    In the small business segment (1-20 employees), which makes up more than half of the total sample size, 627 companies saw no growth in the last two years, while 97 had negative growth. 287 experienced growth. Of these 287, 44 had experienced growth up to 10%, and 245 had a growth rate of more than 10% (24% of the small enterprise group experienced significant growth of 10% or more).