The commercial construction industry has a demand problem, but not the kind contractors usually worry about. Work is coming in; mega projects are accelerating, fabrication shops are expanding, data centers are creating new opportunities for electrical, mechanical, and service contractors. The harder question is whether the industry can build capacity quickly enough to meet the moment without exhausting the people responsible for delivering it.

In a recent episode of Commercial Grade, Sean McGuire, executive director of innovation, technologies, and fabrication at the Mechanical Contractors Association of America (MCAA), dives into what this means for the trades.

Data center demand is moving faster than the industry has seen in decades

“This is about as busy as our industry I’ve ever seen,” says Sean. 

With nearly three decades of industry experience, that’s a strong statement. 

The data center boom is pushing production schedules faster and farther than the industry has experienced in recent memory. Contractors are working extended schedules, adding shifts, and expanding fabrication footprints to keep up with the volume of work.

As McGuire put it,

“The demand that a lot of these megaprojects are having on our contractors is crazy. I’ve never seen tougher work schedules.”

That intensity creates a difficult operational tradeoff. More demand can mean more revenue and opportunity, but schedules that depend on six 12-hour shifts, or more, are not a sustainable capacity strategy. Productivity and labor curves eventually decline, call-out rates rise, and even committed employees begin to self-regulate against burnout, he says.

Contractors are investing in fabrication—but facilities alone will not solve the problem

One of the clearest indicators of market pressure is the speed at which contractors are expanding their fabrication operations.

McGuire shared a poll from MCAA’s fabrication conference. Three or four years ago, roughly 20% of respondents said they planned to expand their fabrication footprint in the following 12 months. That figure rose to approximately 79% a couple of years later—and reached about 82% in the most recent poll.

The growth in facilities reflects what contractors are seeing firsthand: They can expand shop capacity and still struggle to meet demand. But adding physical capacity does not automatically create the skilled labor needed to use it.

“You might be able to double your capacity in a fabrication shop, but you can’t necessarily double your labor,” says Sean

Expanding a shop without being able to staff it can leave expensive infrastructure underutilized. Hiring quickly without the right experience can put consistency, quality, and safety at risk. And relying on overtime indefinitely can undermine the very productivity the additional capacity was meant to create.

The labor challenge is also a training-capacity challenge

The industry’s workforce gap is often described as a recruiting problem. McGuire sees a more complicated picture.

“That’s the real challenge for the next 10 or 15 years. Can we get enough people to get into the trades to meet that demand?”

The issue is not always a lack of interest. In some cases, the industry has more prospective apprentices than its training systems can accommodate. McGuire described training centers that accept 50 apprentices while receiving applications from 3,000 or 4,000 people.

“It’s not even a problem necessarily of getting the messaging out. It’s like how do we get the right people to come in?”

That means trade organizations, contractors, educators, and industry leaders need to address both sides of the equation: attracting people to the trades and expanding the systems that prepare them for the work.

Many training centers have strong facilities and experienced volunteers. But if instruction is limited to a few nights a week, the industry may have significant training infrastructure that is not being used to its full potential. Moving toward more full-time instructors or expanded daytime programs would require meaningful investment, but so will the consequences of leaving demand unmet.

A career in the trades can offer a different path to stability

Recruiting more people also depends on showing prospective workers what a career in the trades can actually look like.

McGuire does not frame the choice as college versus the trades in absolute terms. He acknowledges the value of education while challenging the assumption that a four-year degree is the right path for everyone.

Some people want to work with their hands. Some want to see the result of their effort at the end of the day. And some want a career that offers a sense of accomplishment through building something tangible.

When McGuire visits communities to support contractor recruiting, he uses a concrete example:

“I ask them to send over the 22- to 25-year-old journeyman who owns his own house.”

That opportunity can make a career in the trades more tangible for students and families who may not have considered it before. Apprenticeships can provide paid, hands-on education, industry experience, and a path toward financial independence without requiring the same level of student debt associated with many four-year programs.

AI will change contractor operations—but it will not remove the need for skilled people

The conversation also explored how artificial intelligence may affect the construction industry.

McGuire expects the most immediate opportunities to appear in business operations, particularly where software systems can help ease the burden of repetitive administrative work. 

That does not mean every product labeled “AI” will create meaningful value. Contractors will still need to distinguish between technology that solves a real workflow problem and technology that simply adds a feature label.

Most importantly, AI does not eliminate the underlying workforce challenge. Data centers still require skilled electrical and mechanical work, both to build them and to maintain the uptime those facilities depend on. As McGuire explained, this is specialized work, and there will be a shortage of service contractors capable of managing and maintaining these buildings.

The next advantage will belong to contractors who build sustainable capacity

The current market presents a major opportunity for commercial contractors. But the companies best positioned to capture it will not necessarily be the ones that simply take on the most work.

They will be the ones that can scale without sacrificing quality. That means investing in fabrication and training, building a deeper bench, improving operational visibility, and using technology to reduce avoidable friction in the office and the field.

It also means treating workforce sustainability as an execution issue—not just a human resources issue. Burnout, call-outs, underused facilities, and training bottlenecks all affect a contractor’s ability to deliver profitable, safe, high-quality work.

The demand is here. Can the industry can build the capacity to meet it?

Want the whole episode?

Listen to the full conversation with Sean McGuire on Spotify, Apple, and Youtube.